A new study analyzing the Danish labor market in 2023 and 2024 suggests that generative AI models like ChatGPT have had almost no significant impact on overall wages or employment yet, despite rapid adoption in some workplaces. The findings, detailed in a working paper by economists from the University of Chicago and the University of Copenhagen, provide an early, large-scale empirical look at AI’s transformative potential.
In “Large Language Models, Small Labor Market Effects,” economists Anders Humlum and Emilie Vestergaard focused specifically on the impact of AI chatbots across 11 occupations often considered vulnerable to automation, including accountants, software developers, and customer support specialists. Their analysis covered data from 25,000 workers and 7,000 workplaces in Denmark.
Despite finding widespread and often employer-encouraged adoption of these tools, the study concluded that “AI chatbots have had no significant impact on earnings or recorded hours in any occupation” during the period studied. The confidence intervals in their statistical analysis ruled out average effects larger than 1 percent.
